How every stat works
Everything on FPL Scoop is calculated from FPL's public data. No guesswork, no made-up numbers. The verdicts are written from these stats.
Title odds
We give each manager a scoring rate (points a week above or below the league average; early in the season this leans on last season's finish, then their actual scores take over) and a measure of how up-and-down they are. Then we play out the rest of the season thousands of times from the current table, adding a little for chips still held this half, and count how often each manager finishes 1st, top 3 or last. Odds are the fair price for that chance in bookmaker style: 5/2 means 5 won for every 2 staked, a 29% chance. No bookmaker margin. The settings were chosen by testing on 100 real private leagues: favourites given 60–70% won 71% of the time.
Top score next gameweek
FPL's expected points for each manager's current eleven, with the captain counted twice, plus a typical week's randomness. Before any transfers.
Points left on the table
Each week, the best legal eleven (1 goalkeeper, 3–5 defenders, 2–5 midfielders, 1–3 forwards) and best captain from a manager's own 15, minus what they actually scored.
Efficiency
Points scored as a share of that best possible score. 100% means a perfect team selection and captain every week.
Captain points lost
Each week, the best player in the squad's points, doubled (tripled with Triple Captain), minus what the captain returned.
Transfer net
For every transfer: the new player's points minus the player he replaced, for every week the new player was kept. Hits are subtracted. Wildcard and Free Hit weeks are left out, because those are whole-team rebuilds.
Luck
Goals minus expected goals (xG), assists minus expected assists, and clean sheets minus the chance of keeping one, converted into FPL points for each position and multiplied by captaincy and chips. Positive means your players scored more than their chances deserved. Because most managers own the same in-form players, the whole league is usually lucky in absolute terms, so we show luck against the league average: that's what decides a mini-league.
The table if luck evened out
Each manager's total with their luck against the league average taken out.
Head-to-head table
Every gameweek counted as a match against every other manager: the higher score after hits wins. 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw.
If you'd done nothing
The Gameweek 1 squad played every week since, with FPL's automatic substitutions and the original captain (or vice-captain). No transfers, hits or chips.
Hits ledger
Points spent on extra transfers, against what the transfers made in those weeks earned while kept.
Chip grades
Bench Boost and Triple Captain are graded against the best week available so far this half of the season, from your own squad. Free Hit is graded against what your previous team would have scored that week. Wildcard is graded on how the new players did against the ones they replaced.
Effective ownership (EO)
Ownership that counts captaincy: a starter once, a captain twice, a Triple Captain three times, as a share of managers. If a player's EO in your league is over 100% and you don't own him, every point he scores costs you ground.
Predicted moves
For every manager we look for injured, suspended or blanking players, then the best affordable replacements by FPL's expected points, weighted towards popular buys. Captains favour last week's captain, the most captained player and attackers. Scored after the deadline.
Suggested transfers
Swaps that raise your expected points for next gameweek within your budget. Protect mode weights players your rivals own upwards; Chase weights them down.
Fixture run
Each fixture scores 6 minus FPL's difficulty rating (1 easy to 5 hard). Doubles count twice, blanks zero, added up across the starting eleven for the next five gameweeks.
Live scores
FPL's live points plus provisional bonus from the bonus points system (3, 2, 1 for the top three in each match) until FPL confirms it, with automatic subs projected when a starter's match is over and he didn't play. Projected adds FPL's expected points for players still to play.
Badges
Given to the most extreme manager in the league for each habit: bench points, captain points lost, kneejerk transfers (buying a player straight after a 10+ point week), hits, luck, how similar their eleven is to the rest of the league, transfers made, captains used, money in the bank, automatic substitutions.
Pedigree
Overall finishes from each manager's previous FPL seasons, from FPL's public history.